Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Science. 2011 Jul 29;333(6042):616-20. doi: 10.1126/science.1204531. Epub 2011 May 5.
Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.
努力预测气候变化将如何影响未来的粮食供应，可以受益于了解迄今为止的变化所带来的影响。我们发现，在大多数国家的种植区和生长季节，除了美国这个重要的例外，1980 年至 2008 年的温度趋势超过了历史上每年变化的一个标准差。将四种主要大宗商品的产量与天气联系起来的模型表明，与没有气候趋势的情况相比，全球玉米和小麦产量分别下降了 3.8%和 5.5%。对于大豆和水稻来说，赢家和输家基本相抵。在一些国家，气候趋势大到足以抵消因技术、二氧化碳施肥和其他因素而导致的平均产量增加的很大一部分。
