Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan.
Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Science, Tsukuba, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 10;7(1):7800. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-08214-4.
Although biophysical yield responses to local warming have been studied, we know little about how crop yield growth-a function of climate and technology-responds to global temperature and socioeconomic changes. Here, we present the yield growth of major crops under warming conditions from preindustrial levels as simulated by a global gridded crop model. The results revealed that global mean yields of maize and soybean will stagnate with warming even when agronomic adjustments are considered. This trend is consistent across socioeconomic assumptions. Low-income countries located at low latitudes will benefit from intensive mitigation and from associated limited warming trends (1.8 °C), thus preventing maize, soybean and wheat yield stagnation. Rice yields in these countries can improve under more aggressive warming trends. The yield growth of maize and soybean crops in high-income countries located at mid and high latitudes will stagnate, whereas that of rice and wheat will not. Our findings underpin the importance of ambitious climate mitigation targets for sustaining yield growth worldwide.
尽管已经研究了生物物理产量对局部变暖的响应，但我们对作物产量增长（气候和技术的函数）对全球温度和社会经济变化的响应知之甚少。在这里，我们根据一个全球网格化作物模型模拟，展示了在工业化前水平下主要作物在变暖条件下的产量增长情况。结果表明，即使考虑到农业调整，玉米和大豆的全球平均产量也将随着变暖而停滞不前。这一趋势在不同的社会经济假设下是一致的。位于低纬度的低收入国家将受益于密集的减排措施和相关的有限变暖趋势（1.8°C），从而防止玉米、大豆和小麦产量停滞不前。这些国家的水稻产量在更激进的变暖趋势下可以提高。位于中高纬度的高收入国家的玉米和大豆作物的产量增长将停滞不前，而水稻和小麦的产量则不会。我们的研究结果强调了实现全球范围内产量增长需要有雄心勃勃的气候减排目标。
