冰川。归因于人为和自然原因的全球冰川质量损失。
Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.
机构信息
Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Austria.
Department of Geography, Trent University, Peterborough, Canada.
出版信息
Science. 2014 Aug 22;345(6199):919-21. doi: 10.1126/science.1254702. Epub 2014 Aug 14.
The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.
目前，冰川持续消退，导致海平面上升、季节性水资源可用性改变并增加地质灾害，对人类社会产生影响。冰川消融是人为气候变化的一个标志性现象。然而，冰川的响应时间通常为几十年甚至更长时间，这意味着当前的冰川消退是对过去和当前自然气候变异性以及当前人为强迫的混合响应。本研究表明，在 1851 年至 2010 年期间，全球冰川质量损失仅有 25%±35%归因于人为原因。尽管如此，在 1991 年至 2010 年的冰川质量平衡观测中，仍可以高度置信地检测到人为信号，并且在此期间，人为导致的全球冰川质量损失比例已增加到 69%±24%。
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