Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Health Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada.
Osteoporos Int. 2012 Mar;23(3):921-7. doi: 10.1007/s00198-011-1652-8. Epub 2011 May 11.
In Canada in 2008, based on current rates of fracture and mortality, a woman or man at age 50 years will have a projected lifetime risk of fracture of 12.1% and 4.6%, respectively, and 8.9% and 6.7% after incorporating declining rates of hip fracture and increases in longevity.
In 1989, the lifetime risk of hip fractures in Canada was 14.0% (women) and 5.2% (men). Since then, there have been changes in rates of hip fracture and increased longevity. We update these estimates to 2008 adjusted for these trends, and in addition, we estimated the lifetime risk of first hip fracture.
We used national administrative data from fiscal year April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2008 to identify all hip fractures in Canada. We estimated the crude lifetime risk of hip fracture for age 50 years to end of life using life tables. We projected lifetime risk incorporating national trends in hip fracture and increased longevity from Poisson regressions. Finally, we removed the percentage of second hip fractures to estimate the lifetime risk of first hip fracture.
From April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2008, there were 21,687 hip fractures, 15,742 (72.6%) in women and 5,945 (27.4%) in men. For women and men, the crude lifetime risk was 12.1% (95%CI, 12.1, 12.2%) and 4.6% (95%CI, 4.5, 4.7%), respectively. When trends in mortality and hip fractures were both incorporated, the lifetime risk of hip fracture were 8.9% (95%CI, 2.3, 15.4%) and 6.7% (95%CI, 1.2, 12.2%). The lifetime risks for first hip fracture were 7.3% (95%CI, 0.8, 13.9%) and 6.2% (95%CI, 0.7, 11.7%).
The lifetime risk of hip fracture has fallen from 1989 to 2008 for women and men. Adjustments for trends in mortality and rates of hip fracture with removing second fractures produced non-significant differences in estimates.
在加拿大，2008 年基于骨折和死亡率的当前水平，女性和男性在 50 岁时的终生骨折风险预计分别为 12.1%和 4.6%，如果考虑到髋部骨折率下降和预期寿命延长，这一比例将分别为 8.9%和 6.7%。
1989 年，加拿大髋部骨折的终生风险为女性 14.0%，男性 5.2%。此后，髋部骨折的发生率和预期寿命都发生了变化。我们根据这些趋势对这些估计进行了更新，此外，我们还估计了首次髋部骨折的终生风险。
我们使用 2007 年 4 月 1 日至 2008 年 3 月 31 日的国家行政数据，识别加拿大所有髋部骨折病例。我们使用寿命表，计算 50 岁至生命终末期的髋部骨折终生风险。我们使用泊松回归对髋部骨折和预期寿命的国家趋势进行预测，以估算终生风险。最后，我们排除第二次髋部骨折的比例，以估计首次髋部骨折的终生风险。
2007 年 4 月 1 日至 2008 年 3 月 31 日期间，共发生 21687 例髋部骨折，女性 15742 例（72.6%），男性 5945 例（27.4%）。女性和男性的粗终生风险分别为 12.1%（95%CI，12.1，12.2%）和 4.6%（95%CI，4.5，4.7%）。当同时考虑死亡率和髋部骨折趋势时，髋部骨折的终生风险分别为 8.9%（95%CI，2.3，15.4%）和 6.7%（95%CI，1.2，12.2%）。首次髋部骨折的终生风险分别为 7.3%（95%CI，0.8，13.9%）和 6.2%（95%CI，0.7，11.7%）。
女性和男性的髋部骨折终生风险从 1989 年降至 2008 年。对死亡率和髋部骨折趋势的调整以及去除第二次骨折对估计值没有显著影响。
