Department of Health Care Management, Berlin University of Technology, H80, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany.
Eur J Health Econ. 2012 Aug;13(4):451-60. doi: 10.1007/s10198-011-0316-0. Epub 2011 May 11.
To investigate whether negative changes in their own health (i.e. health shocks) or in that of a smoking or obese household member, lead smokers to quit smoking and obese individuals to lose weight.
The study is informed by economic models ('rational addiction' and 'demand for health' models) which offer hypotheses on the relationship between health shocks and health-related behaviour. Each hypothesis was tested applying a discrete-time hazard model with random effects using up to ten waves of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP) and statistics on cigarette, food and beverage prices provided by the Federal Statistical Office.
Health shocks had a significant positive impact on the probability that smokers quit during the same year in which they experienced the health shock. Health shocks of a smoking household member between year t-2 and t-1 also motivated smoking cessation, although statistical evidence for this was weaker. Health shocks experienced by obese individuals or their household members had, on the other hand, no significant effect on weight loss, as measured by changes in Body Mass Index (BMI).
The results of the study suggest that smokers are aware of the risks associated with tobacco consumption, know about effective strategies to quit smoking, and are willing to quit for health-related reasons. In contrast, there was no evidence for changes in health-related behaviour among obese individuals after a health shock.
研究自身健康状况的恶化（即健康冲击）或吸烟或肥胖家庭成员健康状况的恶化是否会促使吸烟者戒烟和肥胖者减肥。
本研究以经济模型（“理性成瘾”和“健康需求”模型）为依据，这些模型提供了健康冲击与健康相关行为之间关系的假设。应用具有随机效应的离散时间风险模型，利用德国社会经济面板（GSOEP）的最多十轮数据和联邦统计局提供的香烟、食品和饮料价格统计数据，对每个假设进行了检验。
健康冲击对吸烟者在经历健康冲击的同一年内戒烟的概率有显著的正向影响。在 t-2 年至 t-1 年期间，吸烟家庭成员的健康冲击也促使吸烟者戒烟，尽管这方面的统计证据较弱。然而，肥胖者或其家庭成员经历的健康冲击对体重减轻（以体重指数 BMI 的变化来衡量）没有显著影响。
研究结果表明，吸烟者意识到与烟草消费相关的风险，了解有效的戒烟策略，并愿意出于健康原因戒烟。相比之下，在健康冲击后，肥胖者的健康相关行为没有发生变化。
