Yu Fei, Zhang Hong-Long, Lai Sheng-Jie, Ye Chu-Chu, Zhao Dan, Li Zhong-Jie, Yang Wei-Zhong
Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 May;32(5):446-9.
To understand the effectiveness of China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) for outbreak detection at the regional level.
Two counties in Hunan province (Yuelu and Shuangfeng county) and two counties in Yunnan province (Xishan and Gejiu county) were chosen as the study areas. Data from CIDARS were analyzed on the following items: reported cases, warning signals, the time interval of signal response feedback, way of signal verification, outcome of signal verification and field investigation, from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2010.
In total, 12 346 cases from 28 kinds of diseases were reported, and 2096 signals of 19 diseases were generated by the system, with an average of 4.94 signals per county per week. The median of time interval on signal verification feedback was 0.70 hours (P(25)-P(75): 0.06 - 1.29 h) and the main way of signal preliminary verification was through the review of surveillance data (account for 63.07%). Among all the signals, 34 of them (1.62%) were considered to be related to suspected events via the preliminary verification at the local level. Big differences were found to have existed on the proportion of signals related to the suspected events of the total signals among the four counties, with Shuangfeng county as 4.71%, Yuelu county as 1.88%, Gejiu county as 0.95% and Xishan county as 0.58%. After an indepth study on the fields of suspected events, 12 outbreaks were finally confirmed, including 5 on rubella, 4 on mumps, 2 on influenza and 1 on typhoid fever.
CIDARS could be used to assist the local public health institutions on early detection of possible outbreaks at the early stage. However, the effectiveness was different depending on the regions and diseases.
了解中国传染病自动预警与响应系统（CIDARS）在区域层面进行疫情暴发检测的有效性。
选取湖南省的两个县（岳麓县和双峰县）以及云南省的两个县（西山县和个旧县）作为研究地区。对2008年7月1日至2010年6月30日期间CIDARS的数据进行如下项目分析：报告病例数、预警信号、信号响应反馈的时间间隔、信号核实方式、信号核实及现场调查结果。
共报告了28种疾病的12346例病例，系统生成了19种疾病的2096个信号，平均每个县每周4.94个信号。信号核实反馈的时间间隔中位数为0.70小时（P(25)-P(75)：0.06 - 1.29小时），信号初步核实的主要方式是通过监测数据审核（占63.07%）。在所有信号中，经当地初步核实，其中34个（1.62%）被认为与疑似事件有关。四个县中与疑似事件相关信号占总信号的比例存在较大差异，双峰县为4.71%，岳麓县为1.88%，个旧县为0.95%，西山县为0.58%。对疑似事件领域进行深入研究后，最终确认了12起疫情暴发，其中风疹5起，腮腺炎4起，流感2起，伤寒1起。
CIDARS可用于协助当地公共卫生机构在早期阶段尽早发现可能的疫情暴发。然而，其有效性因地区和疾病而异。
