Yang Wei-Zhong, Li Zhong-Jie, Lai Sheng-Jie, Jin Lian-Mei, Zhang Hong-Long, Ye Chu-Chu, Zhao Dan, Sun Qiao, Lü Wei, Ma Jia-Qi, Wang Jin-Feng, Lan Ya-Jia
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 May;32(5):431-5.
To analyze the results of application on China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) and for further improving the system.
Amount of signal, proportion of signal responded, time to signal response, manner of signal verification and the outcome of each signal in CIDARS were descriptively analyzed from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2010.
A total of 533 829 signals were generated nationwide on 28 kinds of infectious diseases in the system. 97.13% of the signals had been responded and the median time to response was 1.1 hours. Among them, 2472 signals were generated by the fixed-value detection method which involved 9 kinds of diseases after the preliminary verification, field investigation and laboratory tests. 2202 signals were excluded, and finally 246 cholera cases, 15 plague cases and 9 H5N1 cases as well as 39 outbreaks of cholera were confirmed. 531 357 signals were generated by the other method - the 'moving percentile method' which involved 19 kinds of diseases. The average amount of signal per county per week was 1.65, with 6603 signals (1.24%) preliminarily verified as suspected outbreaks and 1594 outbreaks were finally confirmed by further field investigation. For diseases in CIDARS, the proportion of signals related to suspected outbreaks to all triggered signals showed a positive correlation with the proportion of cases related to outbreaks of all the reported cases (r = 0.963, P < 0.01).
The signals of CIDARS were responded timely, and the signal could act as a clue for potential outbreaks, which helped enhancing the ability on outbreaks detection for local public health departments.
分析中国传染病自动预警与响应系统（CIDARS）的应用效果，以便进一步完善该系统。
对2008年7月1日至2010年6月30日期间CIDARS系统中28种传染病产生的信号数量、信号响应比例、信号响应时间、信号核实方式及各信号的处理结果进行描述性分析。
该系统在全国范围内共产生了533829条关于28种传染病的信号。97.13%的信号得到了响应，响应时间中位数为1.1小时。其中，通过定值检测法产生了2472条信号，涉及9种疾病，经初步核实、现场调查和实验室检测后，排除2202条信号，最终确诊246例霍乱病例、15例鼠疫病例、9例H5N1病例以及39起霍乱疫情。通过另一种方法——“移动百分位数法”产生了531357条信号，涉及19种疾病。每个县每周的信号平均数量为1.65条，其中6603条信号（1.24%）被初步核实为疑似疫情爆发，经进一步现场调查最终确认1594起疫情爆发。对于CIDARS系统中的疾病，与疑似疫情爆发相关的信号占所有触发信号的比例与所有报告病例中与疫情爆发相关的病例比例呈正相关（r = 0.963，P < 0.01）。
CIDARS系统的信号得到了及时响应，该信号可作为潜在疫情爆发的线索，有助于提高当地公共卫生部门的疫情检测能力。
