Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2011 Jun 15;173(12):1380-7. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwr010. Epub 2011 May 13.
In this paper, the authors describe a simple method for making longitudinal comparisons of alternative markers of a subsequent event. The method is based on the aggregate prediction gain from knowing whether or not a marker has occurred at any particular age. An attractive feature of the method is the exact decomposition of the measure into 2 components: 1) discriminatory ability, which is the difference in the mean time to the subsequent event for individuals for whom the marker has and has not occurred, and 2) prevalence factor, which is related to the proportion of individuals who are positive for the marker at a particular age. Development of the method was motivated by a study that evaluated proposed markers of the menopausal transition, where the markers are measures based on successive menstrual cycles and the subsequent event is the final menstrual period. Here, results from application of the method to 4 alternative proposed markers of the menopausal transition are compared with previous findings.
本文作者描述了一种用于对后续事件的替代标志物进行纵向比较的简单方法。该方法基于从是否发生标志物中获得的总体预测增益。该方法的一个吸引人的特点是将该度量精确分解为 2 个分量：1）鉴别能力，即标记发生和未发生的个体的平均时间到后续事件的差异，2）流行因素，这与在特定年龄时标记呈阳性的个体的比例有关。该方法的发展是由一项评估绝经过渡标志物的研究引发的，其中标志物是基于连续月经周期的测量值，后续事件是最后一次月经。在这里，将该方法应用于 4 种替代的绝经过渡标志物的结果与先前的发现进行了比较。
