Centre for Public Health Sciences, Linköping, Sweden.
Acta Paediatr. 2011 Sep;100(9):1249-52. doi: 10.1111/j.1651-2227.2011.02326.x. Epub 2011 May 18.
To examine the development of childhood obesity and to determine the earliest age when estimating body mass using only weight and height data is associated with a corresponding estimate at the age of 15.
Subjects included are all children born in 1991 in Östergötland County, Sweden. Weight and height data collected during regular check-ups at well-child centres and school health care assessments up to 15 years of age were assembled from health records. Correlations between childhood estimates of body mass and the body mass index (BMI) at 15 years of age were computed pairwise. Correlations with r > 0.5 were defined as reliably strong.
Complete data were available for 3579 children (62%). Fewer girls (2.6%; C.I. 1.9-3.3) than boys (4.6%; C.I. 3.7-5.5) were obese at 15 years of age. Correlations with BMI at 15 years of age were strong (significantly higher than 0.5) from 5 years of age. Only 23% of girls and 8% of boys found to be obese at 5 years of age were of normal weight at the age of 15.
From 5 years of age, point estimates of body mass using only weight and height data are strongly associated with BMI at the age of 15. More data sources are needed to predict weight trajectories in younger children.
探讨儿童肥胖的发展，并确定仅使用体重和身高数据估计体质量与 15 岁时相应估计值相关的最早年龄。
研究对象为瑞典厄斯特哥特兰省 1991 年出生的所有儿童。通过健康记录收集了在儿童健康中心定期检查和学校保健评估期间收集的体重和身高数据，直至 15 岁。计算了儿童时期体质量估计值与 15 岁时体重指数（BMI）之间的相关性。相关系数 r > 0.5 被定义为可靠的强相关。
3579 名儿童（62%）的数据完整。15 岁时肥胖的女孩（2.6%；95%置信区间 1.9-3.3）少于男孩（4.6%；95%置信区间 3.7-5.5）。从 5 岁开始，与 15 岁 BMI 的相关性很强（明显高于 0.5）。在 5 岁时被诊断为肥胖的女孩中，只有 23%，男孩中只有 8%，在 15 岁时体重正常。
从 5 岁开始，仅使用体重和身高数据的体质量点估计值与 15 岁时的 BMI 密切相关。需要更多的数据源来预测年幼儿童的体重轨迹。
