Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2011 Jul 12;366(1573):2023-34. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0400.
Uncertainty is an inherent feature of strategies to contain animal disease. In this paper, an interdisciplinary framework for representing strategies of containment, and analysing how uncertainties are embedded and propagated through them, is developed and illustrated. Analysis centres on persistent, periodic and emerging disease threats, with a particular focus on cryptosporidiosis, foot and mouth disease and avian influenza. Uncertainty is shown to be produced at strategic, tactical and operational levels of containment, and across the different arenas of disease prevention, anticipation and alleviation. The paper argues for more critically reflexive assessments of uncertainty in containment policy and practice. An interdisciplinary approach has an important contribution to make, but is absent from current real-world containment policy.
不确定性是控制动物疾病策略的固有特征。本文提出了一个跨学科的框架，用于表示控制策略，并分析不确定性是如何嵌入和传播的。分析集中在持久性、周期性和新兴疾病威胁上，特别关注隐孢子虫病、口蹄疫和禽流感。不确定性是在控制的战略、战术和操作层面产生的，跨越了疾病预防、预测和缓解的不同领域。本文认为，需要对控制政策和实践中的不确定性进行更具批判性的反思性评估。跨学科方法对此有重要贡献，但目前在现实世界的控制政策中却没有得到体现。
