Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jun 14;108(24):9770-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1102409108. Epub 2011 May 31.
Trace greenhouse gases are a fundamentally important component of Earth's global climate system sensitive to global change. However, their concentration in the pre-Pleistocene atmosphere during past warm greenhouse climates is highly uncertain because we lack suitable geochemical or biological proxies. This long-standing issue hinders assessment of their contribution to past global warmth and the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Earth system (E(ss)) to CO(2). Here we report results from a series of three-dimensional Earth system modeling simulations indicating that the greenhouse worlds of the early Eocene (55 Ma) and late Cretaceous (90 Ma) maintained high concentrations of methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide. Modeled methane concentrations were four- to fivefold higher than the preindustrial value typically adopted in modeling investigations of these intervals, even after accounting for the possible high CO(2)-suppression of biogenic isoprene emissions on hydroxyl radical abundance. Higher concentrations of trace greenhouse gases exerted marked planetary heating (> 2 K), amplified in the high latitudes (> 6 K) by lower surface albedo feedbacks, and increased E(ss) in the Eocene by 1 K. Our analyses indicate the requirement for including non-CO(2) greenhouse gases in model-based E(ss) estimates for comparison with empirical paleoclimate assessments, and point to chemistry-climate feedbacks as possible amplifiers of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene.
痕量温室气体是地球全球气候系统对全球变化敏感的一个基本重要组成部分。然而,由于缺乏合适的地球化学或生物学示踪剂,在过去温暖的温室气候中,它们在更新世前大气中的浓度高度不确定。这个长期存在的问题阻碍了对它们在过去全球变暖中的贡献以及地球系统对二氧化碳平衡气候敏感性 (E(ss)) 的评估。在这里,我们报告了一系列三维地球系统模型模拟的结果,这些模拟表明,早始新世(5500 万年前)和晚白垩世(9000 万年前)的温室世界维持着高浓度的甲烷、对流层臭氧和氧化亚氮。即使考虑到羟基自由基丰度可能对生物成因异戊二烯排放的高 CO(2)抑制作用,模型模拟的甲烷浓度仍比通常在这些时期的建模研究中采用的工业化前值高出四到五倍。痕量温室气体浓度的升高对行星产生了明显的加热作用(>2K),在低纬度地区(>6K),由于地表反照率反馈的降低,这种加热作用更为显著,并使始新世的 E(ss)增加了 1K。我们的分析表明,需要在基于模型的 E(ss)估计中包括非 CO(2)温室气体,以便与经验古气候评估进行比较,并指出化学-气候反馈可能是人类世气候敏感性的放大器。