Department of Emergency Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101 Daehakro, Chongno-Gu, Seoul, 110-744, Korea.
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2012 Jun;47(6):957-65. doi: 10.1007/s00127-011-0403-7. Epub 2011 Jun 8.
The effect of celebrity suicides on copycat suicide attempts is not well known. Our objective was to determine the association between celebrity suicide and copycat suicide attempts.
We conducted a retrospective multicenter observational time series analysis. Celebrity suicides were selected by an operational definition via three nationwide television news internet sites from January 2005 to December 2008. The reference week was defined as the week preceding date of suicide notification to the public. Then two pre-event weeks and four post-event weeks were analyzed for suicide attempts. We derived a prediction model for suicide attempt visits for each ED for these seven observational weeks using a General Additive Model with data from the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) database. We calculated the mean excess visit (EV = observed visit - expected visit) and mean excess visit ratio (EVR = EV/expected visit). We tested the mean EV and EVR between reference weeks versus the observational weeks using independent t test and repeated measures ANOVA.
Five celebrity suicides occurred during the study period. Total number of ED visits was 5,453,441 in the 85 EDs over the 4-year period, and suicide attempt or self-injury occurred in 27,605. The mean excess visit for each observational interval per ED was less than 0.1 during pre-event periods but increased to 0.695 in the second post-event week. EVs were significantly higher in the first to the third post-event weeks (p = 0.02, p < 0.01, p = 0.03, respectively) compared to reference week. The mean EVRs were significantly higher (=0.215) in the second post-week intervals compared with the reference week (p = 0.03). Mean EVs and mean EVRs showed significant increase in the post event period compared with the observational period (p = 0.001 in EV, p = 0.021 in EVR).
From a prediction model using a 4-year nationwide ED database, ED visits for suicide attempts or self injury increased following the announcements of celebrity suicides.
名人自杀对模仿自杀企图的影响尚不清楚。我们的目的是确定名人自杀与模仿自杀企图之间的关联。
我们进行了回顾性多中心观察时间序列分析。名人自杀是通过三个全国性的电视新闻网站根据一个操作定义选择的，时间范围为 2005 年 1 月至 2008 年 12 月。参考周被定义为自杀通知公布前的一周。然后分析自杀前两周和自杀后四周的自杀企图。我们使用国家急诊部信息系统（NEDIS）数据库中的数据，通过广义加性模型为每个 ED 生成这七个观察周的自杀企图就诊预测模型。我们计算了观察周与参考周之间的平均超额就诊（EV=观察就诊-预期就诊）和平均超额就诊比（EVR=EV/预期就诊）。我们使用独立 t 检验和重复测量方差分析检验了参考周与观察周之间的平均 EV 和 EVR。
在研究期间发生了五起名人自杀事件。在四年期间的 85 个 ED 中，ED 就诊总次数为 5453441 次，其中有 27605 次自杀企图或自残。每个 ED 在自杀前期间的每个观察间隔的平均超额就诊数小于 0.1，但在第二后事件周增加到 0.695。与参考周相比，EV 在第一至第三后事件周显着升高（p=0.02，p<0.01，p=0.03）。与参考周相比，第二后事件周的平均 EVR 显着升高（=0.215）（p=0.03）。与观察期相比，后事件期的平均 EV 和平均 EVR 显着增加（EV 中 p=0.001，EVR 中 p=0.021）。
从使用全国性 4 年 ED 数据库的预测模型来看，在宣布名人自杀后，ED 就诊的自杀企图或自残增加。
