Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 2011 Sep;43(5):1624-34. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.02.005. Epub 2011 Apr 22.
This paper studies the influence of built environment (BE) - including land use types, road network connectivity, transit supply and demographic characteristics - on pedestrian activity and pedestrian-vehicle collision occurrence. For this purpose, a two-equation modeling framework is proposed to investigate the effect of built environment on both pedestrian activity and vehicle-pedestrian collision frequency at signalized intersections. Using accident data of ambulance services in the City of Montreal, the applicability of our framework is illustrated. Different model settings were attempted as part of a model sensitivity analysis. Among other results, it was found that the BE in the proximity of an intersection has a powerful association with pedestrian activity but a small direct effect on pedestrian-vehicle collision frequency. This suggests that the impact of BE is mainly mediated through pedestrian activity. In other words, strategies that encourage densification, mix of land uses and increase in transit supply will increase pedestrian activity and may indirectly, with no supplementary safety strategies, increase the total number of injured pedestrians. In accordance with previous research, the number of motor vehicles entering a particular intersection is the main determinant of collision frequency. Our results show that a 30% reduction in the traffic volume would reduce the total number of injured pedestrians by 35% and the average risk of pedestrian collision by 50% at the intersections under analysis. Major arterials are found to have a double negative effect on pedestrian safety. They are positively linked to traffic but negatively associated with pedestrian activity. The proposed framework is useful for the identification of effective pedestrian safety actions, the prediction of pedestrian volumes and the appropriate safety design of new urban developments that encourage walking.
本文研究了建成环境（BE）——包括土地利用类型、道路网络连通性、交通供应和人口特征——对行人活动和行人和车辆碰撞发生的影响。为此，提出了一个两方程建模框架，以研究建成环境对信号交叉口行人活动和车辆与行人碰撞频率的影响。利用蒙特利尔市救护车服务的事故数据，说明了我们框架的适用性。作为模型敏感性分析的一部分，尝试了不同的模型设置。除其他结果外，还发现交叉口附近的 BE 与行人活动密切相关，但对行人和车辆碰撞频率的直接影响较小。这表明 BE 的影响主要通过行人活动来介导。换句话说，鼓励密度增加、土地利用混合和增加交通供应的策略将增加行人活动，并可能在没有补充安全策略的情况下间接增加受伤行人的总数。与先前的研究一致，进入特定交叉口的机动车数量是碰撞频率的主要决定因素。我们的研究结果表明，交通量减少 30%将使分析中的交叉口受伤行人总数减少 35%，行人碰撞的平均风险降低 50%。主要干道对行人安全有双重负面影响。它们与交通呈正相关，但与行人活动呈负相关。所提出的框架有助于识别有效的行人安全措施、预测行人流量以及适当设计鼓励步行的新城市发展的安全设计。
