Application of the new logistic model to microbial growth prediction in food.

Recently a microbial growth model, the new logistic model, which could precisely describe and predict microbial growth at various patterns of temperature, was developed by the author (Biocontrol Science, 15, 75-80, 2010). The author shows several software programs developed with the model in this review. First, a program that analyzes microbial growth data and generates growth curves fitted to the model was developed. Second, a growth prediction program for Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Vibrio paraheamolyticus [corrected] exposed at various patterns of temperature was made based on experimental data. For V. paraheamolyticus [corrected] a program for bacterial growth under environmental conditions including temperature, salt concentration, and pH was developed. These programs are available free at the Japan Food Industry Center. Furthermore, a method to estimate the temperature at various points on or inside a food exposed to a given temperature was developed by using the measured temperatures of two points on the surface of the food and the heat conduction law. Combining this method with the growth model, a system that predicts microbial growth in a food exposed to various temperature patterns was made. This system could be a prototype of an alert system for microbial food safety.