Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2011 Aug;15(8):1038-43. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.10.0695.
Reliable surveillance is essential for any tuberculosis (TB) control programme; however, under-registration of TB cases due to under-notification of patients on treatment or failure to initiate treatment has been well-documented internationally.
To determine the contribution of capture-recapture methods in estimating the completeness of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB registration in two high-incident communities in South Africa.
Record linkage between the TB treatment register and two laboratory sputum TB result registers and three-source log-linear capture-recapture analysis.
The number of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB cases in the TB treatment register was 243, with an additional 63 cases identified in the two laboratory databases, resulting in 306 TB cases. The observed completeness of the TB treatment register was 79%. The log-linear model estimated 326 (95%CI 314-355) TB cases, resulting in an estimated completeness of registration of 75% (95%CI 68-77).
Capture-recapture can be useful in evaluating the completeness of TB control surveillance and registration, including in resource-limited settings; however, methodology and results should be carefully assessed. Interventions are needed to increase the completeness of registration and to reduce the number of initial defaulters.
可靠的监测对于任何结核病（TB）控制规划都至关重要；然而，国际上有大量文献记录了由于对治疗中的患者通知不足或未能启动治疗而导致结核病病例漏报和未登记的情况。
确定捕获-再捕获方法在估计南非两个高发社区中经细菌学证实的肺结核登记完整性方面的作用。
对结核病治疗登记处与两个实验室痰结核结果登记处进行记录链接，并进行三源对数线性捕获-再捕获分析。
在结核病治疗登记处登记的细菌学确诊肺结核病例数为 243 例，在两个实验室数据库中又发现了 63 例，共计 306 例结核病病例。结核病治疗登记处的观察完整性为 79%。对数线性模型估计有 326 例（95%CI 314-355）结核病病例，估计登记完整率为 75%（95%CI 68-77）。
捕获-再捕获方法可用于评估结核病控制监测和登记的完整性，包括在资源有限的环境中；然而，应仔细评估方法和结果。需要采取干预措施，以提高登记的完整性，并减少初始失访者的数量。
