Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2011 Nov;11(11):1439-46. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2010.0196. Epub 2011 Jul 14.
Although several health departments collect coyote blood samples for plague surveillance, the association between reported human cases and coyote seroprevalence rates remains anecdotal. Using data from an endemic region of the United States, we sought to quantify this association. From 1974 to 1998, about 2,276 coyote blood samples from four Arizona counties were tested for serological evidence of exposure to Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. Using a titer threshold presumed to be indicative of recent infection (serum titers of ≥1:256), we found a statistically significant relationship between years with >17% sero-positive coyotes and years with two or more human cases reported. Moreover, when the annual coyote seroprevalence rates were dichotomized at 17%, 84% of the years were correctly classified using four biologically relevant meteorological variables in a linear regression. This is the first time a statistically significant temporal association between human plague cases and coyote seroprevalence rates has been shown. However, issues with data resolution and surveillance effort that potentially limit the public health utility of using coyote seroprevalence rates are discussed.
尽管有几个卫生部门收集土狼血液样本进行鼠疫监测，但报告的人类病例与土狼血清阳性率之间的关联仍然只是传闻。我们利用美国一个流行地区的数据，试图量化这种关联。从 1974 年到 1998 年，从亚利桑那州的四个县采集了大约 2276 份土狼血液样本，以检测对鼠疫病原体耶尔森氏菌的血清学证据。使用一个假定能表明近期感染的滴度阈值（血清滴度≥1:256），我们发现，在血清阳性土狼比例超过 17%的年份与报告有两例或更多人类病例的年份之间存在统计学上的显著关系。此外，当每年的土狼血清阳性率以 17%为界进行二分法时，使用四个与生物学相关的气象变量进行线性回归，84%的年份的分类是正确的。这是首次表明人类鼠疫病例与土狼血清阳性率之间存在统计学上显著的时间关联。然而，数据分辨率和监测工作方面的问题可能限制了使用土狼血清阳性率的公共卫生效用，这些问题也在讨论中。
