The Andrzej Sołtan Institute for Nuclear Studies, 05-400 Otwock-Swierk, Poland.
Health Phys. 2011 Sep;101(3):265-73. doi: 10.1097/HP.0b013e31821115bf.
The influence of ionizing radiation of (222)Rn and its progeny on lung cancer risks that were published in 28 papers was re-analyzed using seven alternative dose-response models. The risks of incidence and mortality were studied in two ranges of low annual radiation dose: 0-70 mSv per year (391 Bq m(-3)) and 0-150 mSv per year (838 Bq m(-3)). Assumption-free Bayesian statistical methods were used. The analytical results demonstrate that the published incidence and mortality data do not show that radiation dose is associated with increased risk in this range of doses. This conclusion is based on the observation that the model assuming no dependence of the lung cancer induction on the radiation doses is at least ∼90 times more likely to be true than the other models tested, including the linear no-threshold (LNT) model.
使用七种替代剂量-反应模型,重新分析了(222)Rn 及其子体的电离辐射对肺癌风险的影响。在低年辐射剂量的两个范围内研究了发病率和死亡率的风险:每年 0-70mSv(391Bqm-3)和每年 0-150mSv(838Bqm-3)。使用了无假设贝叶斯统计方法。分析结果表明,发表的发病率和死亡率数据并未表明在该剂量范围内辐射剂量与风险增加有关。这一结论是基于这样的观察,即假设肺癌的诱发与辐射剂量无关的模型比包括线性无阈值(LNT)模型在内的其他测试模型至少有 90 倍的可能性是正确的。