Westat, Rockville, Maryland 20850, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2011 Aug;12(4):297-305. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2011.568554.
Before October 1, 2002, Maryland's regulations for relicensing drivers with 2 recorded alcohol-related traffic violations distinguished between offenders with 5 or more years between their first and second violations and those with less than 5 years. Our research examined whether this policy was supported by differential probabilities of recidivism and violation-free survival.
We compared recidivism rates and survival probabilities among the 2 latency subgroups and 2 control groups (first offenders and drivers with no previous alcohol-related traffic violation). Data were extracted from Maryland's driver record database and segregated files and analyzed by age quintiles using Cox proportional hazards models containing identifiers for risk factors, including prior violations. All drivers (N = 64,536) were matched on age quintile, gender, and month of offenders' index violations. Effects of violation histories on survival and recidivism probabilities were measured by contrasts of regression coefficients.
Among second offenders, the shorter latency subgroup consistently had higher recidivism and lower violation-free survival than the longer latency subgroup, whose rates fell between those of first offenders and the shorter latency subgroup. Although highly significant, the subgroup differences were small and paled by comparison to differences between first and zero offenders in probability of a subsequent violation.
An earlier study that showed similar overall recidivism for these latency subgroups helped encourage Maryland to change its regulations governing license reinstatement. New regulations issued October 1, 2002, focused on 2 alcohol violations "during any period of time" where investigation indicated alcoholism or unaddressed alcohol problems. To obtain relicensure, these offenders could be required to enter or complete a lengthy certified alcohol treatment program. Our current results are consistent with these requirements. License reinstatement should be primarily guided by the extent of alcohol impairment, especially because both latency subgroups showed higher risks of recidivism than first offenders, who themselves had comparatively high risk.
2002 年 10 月 1 日之前，马里兰州对有 2 次记录的酒精相关交通违规行为的驾驶员进行重新许可的规定区分了第一次和第二次违规行为之间有 5 年或以上时间间隔的违规者和少于 5 年时间间隔的违规者。我们的研究考察了该政策是否得到了累犯率和无违规生存概率的差异支持。
我们比较了 2 个潜伏期亚组和 2 个对照组（初次违规者和无先前酒精相关交通违规者）之间的累犯率和生存概率。数据从马里兰州的驾驶员记录数据库中提取，并按年龄五分位数进行了分离文件分析，使用包含风险因素标识符的 Cox 比例风险模型进行了分析，这些风险因素包括先前的违规行为。所有驾驶员（N=64536）根据年龄五分位数、性别和罪犯索引违规行为的月份进行了匹配。通过回归系数的对比来衡量违规史对生存和累犯概率的影响。
在第二次违规者中，较短潜伏期亚组的累犯率始终高于较长潜伏期亚组，且无违规生存概率较低，其比率介于初次违规者和较短潜伏期亚组之间。尽管差异非常显著，但亚组之间的差异很小，与初次违规者和零违规者在随后违规的可能性方面的差异相比相形见绌。
早期的一项研究表明，这些潜伏期亚组的总体累犯率相似，这有助于鼓励马里兰州改变其关于执照恢复的规定。2002 年 10 月 1 日发布的新规定侧重于“在任何时间段内”的 2 次酒精违规行为，其中调查表明存在酗酒或未解决的酒精问题。为了获得执照恢复，这些违规者可能需要参加或完成一个冗长的经认证的酒精治疗计划。我们目前的结果与这些要求一致。执照恢复应该主要由酒精损害程度来指导，特别是因为这两个潜伏期亚组的累犯率都高于初次违规者，而初次违规者本身的风险相对较高。
