University of California, Berkeley, and National Bureau of Economic Research.
Q J Econ. 2011;126(1):103-43. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjr001.
We study the link between family violence and the emotional cues associated with wins and losses by professional football teams. We hypothesize that the risk of violence is affected by the “gain-loss” utility of game outcomes around a rationally expected reference point. Our empirical analysis uses police reports of violent incidents on Sundays during the professional football season. Controlling for the pregame point spread and the size of the local viewing audience, we find that upset losses (defeats when the home team was predicted to win by four or more points) lead to a 10% increase in the rate of at-home violence by men against their wives and girlfriends. In contrast, losses when the game was expected to be close have small and insignificant effects. Upset wins (victories when the home team was predicted to lose) also have little impact on violence, consistent with asymmetry in the gain-loss utility function. The rise in violence after an upset loss is concentrated in a narrow time window near the end of the game and is larger for more important games. We find no evidence for reference point updating based on the halftime score.
我们研究了家庭暴力与职业足球队胜负相关的情绪线索之间的联系。我们假设，暴力风险受到围绕理性预期参考点的“盈亏”效用的影响。我们的实证分析使用了职业足球赛季周日警方关于暴力事件的报告。在控制了赛前比分和当地观众规模后，我们发现令人沮丧的失利（主场球队被预测领先 4 分或更多时输球）会导致男性对妻子和女友的家庭暴力率上升 10%。相比之下，当比赛预计接近时，输球的影响很小且不显著。令人沮丧的胜利（主场球队被预测输球时获胜）对暴力行为也几乎没有影响，这与盈亏效用函数的不对称性一致。令人沮丧的失利后暴力行为的增加集中在比赛接近尾声的一个狭窄时间窗口内，并且在更重要的比赛中更为明显。我们没有发现基于中场比分的参考点更新的证据。
