Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WB, UK.
Science. 2011 Sep 9;333(6048):1393-400. doi: 10.1126/science.1191181.
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.
我们都面临着对未来的不确定性，但我们可以根据概率来衡量某些不确定性。概率很难有效地传达给非专业听众，在这篇综述中，我们使用来自体育、天气、气候、健康、经济和政治领域的例子，检查了目前使用视觉方式来传达不确定性的实践。尽管人们对信息图越来越感兴趣，但关于不同类型的可视化如何被处理和理解的实验证据有限，尽管一些图形的有效性显然取决于观众的相对计算能力。幸运的是，越来越容易以交互式可视化和多种可根据用户需求和能力进行调整的表示形式呈现数据。尽管如此，传达由于知识不完整或有争议，或者对未来存在基本不确定性而导致的更深层次的不确定性仍然是一个挑战。
