Grounds Margaret A, Joslyn Susan L
Department of Psychology, University of Washington.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2018 Mar;24(1):18-33. doi: 10.1037/xap0000165.
Research suggests that people make better weather-related decisions when they are given numeric probabilities for critical outcomes (Joslyn & Leclerc, 2012, 2013). However, it is unclear whether all users can take advantage of probabilistic forecasts to the same extent. The research reported here assessed key cognitive and demographic factors to determine their relationship to the use of probabilistic forecasts to improve decision quality. In two studies, participants decided between spending resources to prevent icy conditions on roadways or risk a larger penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. Several forecast formats were tested, including a control condition with the night-time low temperature alone and experimental conditions that also included the probability of freezing and advice based on expected value. All but those with extremely low numeracy scores made better decisions with probabilistic forecasts. Importantly, no groups made worse decisions when probabilities were included. Moreover, numeracy was the best predictor of decision quality, regardless of forecast format, suggesting that the advantage may extend beyond understanding the forecast to general decision strategy issues. This research adds to a growing body of evidence that numerical uncertainty estimates may be an effective way to communicate weather danger to general public end users. (PsycINFO Database Record
研究表明，当人们获得关键结果的数值概率时，他们能做出更好的与天气相关的决策（乔斯林和勒克莱尔，2012年，2013年）。然而，尚不清楚所有用户是否都能同等程度地利用概率性预报。此处报告的研究评估了关键的认知和人口统计学因素，以确定它们与利用概率性预报来提高决策质量之间的关系。在两项研究中，参与者需要在花费资源预防道路结冰状况和在出现冰冻温度时冒遭受更大处罚的风险之间做出抉择。测试了几种预报形式，包括仅提供夜间低温的对照条件，以及还包括结冰概率和基于期望值的建议的实验条件。除了那些算术能力得分极低的人之外，所有人在使用概率性预报时都做出了更好的决策。重要的是，当纳入概率时，没有任何群体做出更糟糕的决策。此外，无论预报形式如何，算术能力都是决策质量的最佳预测指标，这表明这种优势可能不仅限于理解预报，还延伸到一般决策策略问题。这项研究进一步证明，数值不确定性估计可能是向普通公众终端用户传达天气危险的一种有效方式。（《心理学文摘数据库记录》 ）
