School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1UG, UK.
Curr Biol. 2011 Sep 27;21(18):1565-70. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2011.08.016. Epub 2011 Sep 15.
Climate change affects marine biological processes from genetic to ecosystem levels [1-3]. Recent warming in the northeast Atlantic [4, 5] has caused distributional shifts in some fish species along latitudinal and depth gradients [6, 7], but such changes, as predicted by climate envelope models [8], may often be prevented because population movement requires availability of suitable habitat. We assessed the full impacts of warming on the commercially important European continental shelf fish assemblage using a data-driven Eulerian (grid-based) approach that accommodates spatial heterogeneity in ecological and environmental conditions. We analyzed local associations of species abundance and community diversity with climatic variables, assessing trends in 172 cells from records of >100 million individuals sampled over 1.2 million km(2) from 1980-2008. We demonstrate responses to warming in 72% of common species, with three times more species increasing in abundance than declining, and find these trends reflected in international commercial landings. Profound reorganization of the relative abundance of species in local communities occurred despite decadal stability in the presence-absence of species. Our analysis highlights the importance of focusing on changes in species abundance in established local communities to assess the full consequences of climate change for commercial fisheries and food security.
气候变化影响着从遗传到生态系统水平的海洋生物过程[1-3]。最近北大西洋的变暖[4,5]导致一些鱼类物种在纬度和深度梯度上发生了分布变化[6,7]，但正如气候包络模型[8]所预测的，这些变化往往会受到阻碍，因为种群的迁移需要有适宜的栖息地。我们使用基于数据的欧拉方法（基于网格的方法）来评估变暖对具有商业重要性的欧洲大陆架鱼类群的全面影响，该方法可适应生态和环境条件的空间异质性。我们分析了物种丰度和群落多样性与气候变量之间的局部关联，评估了 1980 年至 2008 年期间在超过 120 万平方千米的范围内记录的 172 个单元格中记录的超过 1 亿个个体的趋势。我们证明了 72%的常见物种对变暖有反应，增加丰度的物种数量是减少的三倍，并且在国际商业捕捞中发现了这些趋势。尽管物种的存在与否在十年间保持稳定，但当地社区中物种相对丰度的深刻重组仍然发生了。我们的分析强调了在已建立的当地社区中关注物种丰度变化的重要性，以评估气候变化对商业渔业和粮食安全的全面影响。
