Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2012 Jan;184(1):581-94. doi: 10.1007/s10661-011-2353-7. Epub 2011 Sep 20.
The impacts of climate change on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in the Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment are predicted by combining a general circulation model (HadCM3) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A statistical downscaling model was used to generate future local scenarios of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. Then, the downscaled meteorological variables were used as input to the SWAT hydrological model calibrated and validated with observations, and the corresponding changes of future streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads in Shitoukoumen reservoir catchment were simulated and analyzed. Results show that daily temperature increases in three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) relative to a baseline of 1961-1990, and the rate of increase is 0.63°C per decade. Annual precipitation also shows an apparent increase of 11 mm per decade. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate well the streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads, with a coefficient of determination of 0.7 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of about 0.7 for both the calibration and validation periods. The future climate change has a significant impact on streamflow and non-point source pollutant loads. The annual streamflow shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2099, with an increase rate of 1.1 m(3) s(-1) per decade, and a significant upward trend in summer, with an increase rate of 1.32 m(3) s(-1) per decade. The increase in summer contributes the most to the increase of annual load compared with other seasons. The annual NH (4) (+) -N load into Shitoukoumen reservoir shows a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 40.6 t per decade. The annual TP load shows an insignificant increasing trend, and its change rate is 3.77 t per decade. The results of this analysis provide a scientific basis for effective support of decision makers and strategies of adaptation to climate change.
气候变化对石头口门水库集水区的流域径流量和非点源污染物负荷的影响，是通过结合使用一个通用环流模型（HadCM3）和土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）水文模型来预测的。统计降尺度模型用于生成温度和降水等气象变量的未来局部情景。然后，将降尺度后的气象变量作为输入输入到经过校准和验证的 SWAT 水文模型中，模拟和分析石头口门水库集水区未来的径流量和非点源污染物负荷变化。结果表明，与 1961-1990 年基线相比，未来三个时期（2010-2039 年、2040-2069 年和 2070-2099 年）的日平均温度每十年增加 0.63°C，年降水量每十年也明显增加 11mm。校准和验证结果表明，SWAT 模型能够很好地模拟流域径流量和非点源污染物负荷，校准期和验证期的决定系数分别为 0.7，纳什-斯库利效率约为 0.7。未来气候变化对流域径流量和非点源污染物负荷有显著影响。年径流量从 2010 年到 2099 年呈波动上升趋势，每十年增长率为 1.1m(3)s(-1)，夏季呈显著上升趋势，每十年增长率为 1.32m(3)s(-1)。与其他季节相比，夏季的增加对年负荷的增加贡献最大。石头口门水库每年的 NH (4) (+) -N 负荷呈显著下降趋势，每十年减少 40.6t。年 TP 负荷呈不显著增加趋势，变化率为 3.77t 每十年。本分析的结果为决策者提供了有效的支持，为适应气候变化的策略提供了科学依据。
