Aibaidula Dilibaier, Ates Nuray, Dadaser-Celik Filiz
Department of Environmental Engineering, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(5):13582-13604. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23141-2. Epub 2022 Sep 22.
Climate change can have severe impacts on the water availability in semi-arid regions. In this study, we assessed the impact of climatic changes on water availability in the Altınapa Reservoir Watershed, located in the Konya province, south-central Turkey. Altınapa Reservoir supplies drinking water to Konya, a city of about 2 million population. We investigated possible changes in streamflow and reservoir storage over 2021-2098 under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) developed based on GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models. We used a physically based model (SWAT-Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for understanding the hydrologic response of the basin to climatic changes. Results show that upward trends in air temperatures in the range of 0.01-0.04 °C/year and 0.005-0.06 °C/year are expected from 2021 to 2098 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. According to the HadGEM2-ES model, precipitation and streamflow would show a downward trend at a rate of 0.96 mm/year and 0.007 m/s/year under the RCP4.5 scenario and at a rate of 1.62 mm/year and 0.01 m/s/year under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models project upward trends in precipitation and streamflow under the RCP4.5 scenario (in the range of 0.64-1.28 mm/year and 0.0003-0.006 m/s/year, respectively), and downward trends under the RCP8.5 scenario (in the range of 0.47-0.76 mm/year and 0.0015-0.003 m/s/year, respectively). Reservoir storage is projected to increase slightly according to GFDL-ESM2M model and decrease according to the HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR models under both scenarios. Precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage predictions of GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models are considerably lower than those observed in the basin in recent decades, showing that water resources will decrease in the future. The changes in water withdrawal patterns could cause further reductions in water availability. Good resilience to climate change can be achieved by a flexible water management system and by reducing water consumption and water losses in the watershed and from the reservoirs.
气候变化会对半干旱地区的水资源可利用性产生严重影响。在本研究中，我们评估了气候变化对位于土耳其中南部科尼亚省的阿尔特纳帕水库流域水资源可利用性的影响。阿尔特纳帕水库为科尼亚市（一个约有200万人口的城市）供应饮用水。我们基于GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES和MPI-ESM-MR全球环流模型开发的两种代表性浓度路径情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5），研究了2021年至2098年期间河流流量和水库蓄水量的可能变化。我们使用基于物理的模型（SWAT-土壤和水评估工具）来理解流域对气候变化的水文响应。结果表明，在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，预计2021年至2098年期间气温将分别以0.01 - 0.04℃/年和0.005 - 0.06℃/年的幅度呈上升趋势。根据HadGEM2-ES模型，在RCP4.5情景下，降水量和河流流量将分别以每年0.96毫米和0.007米/秒的速率呈下降趋势；在RCP8.5情景下，分别以每年1.62毫米和0.01米/秒的速率呈下降趋势。GFDL-ESM2M和MPI-ESM-MR模型预测，在RCP4.5情景下，降水量和河流流量呈上升趋势（分别在0.64 - 1.28毫米/年和0.0003 - 0.006米/秒的范围内），而在RCP8.5情景下呈下降趋势（分别在0.47 - 0.76毫米/年和0.0015 - 0.003米/秒的范围内）。在两种情景下，根据GFDL-ESM2M模型预测水库蓄水量将略有增加，而根据HadGEM2-ES和MPI-ESM-MR模型预测将减少。GFDL-ESM2M和MPI-ESM-MR模型对降水量、河流流量和水库蓄水量的预测远低于该流域近几十年来观测到的数值，这表明未来水资源将会减少。取水模式的变化可能会导致水资源可利用性进一步降低。通过灵活的水资源管理系统以及减少流域和水库的用水量及水损失，可以实现对气候变化的良好适应能力。
