Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Republic of Korea.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Nov 15;409(24):5228-42. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.027. Epub 2011 Sep 22.
This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices--potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC)--were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.
本研究开发了一个新的框架来量化水资源可持续管理的空间脆弱性。四个水文脆弱性指数——潜在洪水破坏（PFDC）、潜在干旱破坏（PDDC）、潜在水质恶化（PWQDC）和流域评估指数（WEIC）——分别进行了修改，以量化考虑气候变化影响后的洪水破坏、干旱破坏、水质恶化和整体流域风险。在选择气候变化影响的所有适当指标（标准）时，采用了“驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）”框架中的可持续性概念。在气候变化的检查中，使用 CGCM3（加拿大全球耦合模型）和 SDSM（统计降尺度模型）获取未来气象数据，并使用 HSPF（水文模拟程序- Fortran）模拟未来的河流径流量和水质。然后，使用 TOPSIS（多属性决策分析方法）计算四个修改后的指数。结果是，考虑到气候变化的影响，排名可以改变。本研究代表了一种新的尝试，即采用既考虑气候变化影响又考虑可持续性概念的方法来量化水文脆弱性。
