Zhuo W
Sanitary and Antiepidemic Station of Changde City, Hunan province.
Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi. 1990;8(1):22-5.
The purpose of this paper is to make an epidemiological analysis of the mixed distribution of tertian malaria with long and short incubation by mathematical model. Using the Gram-Charlier series and the Marquardt's nonlinear least square dissecting method and the systematic computerized program for the dissection of mixed samples of tertian malaria with different incubation periods over the past 7 years in Changde City, Hunan Province, and discussing the influence of the climatic factor and epidemic process, it has been inferred that there were two kinds of incubation period of tertian malaria in this city. The long incubation period cases and the short ones have formed seasonal excessive distributions during the late spring and during the summer and autumn, respectively. The parameters estimated from the model had an optimal goodness of fitting to practical distribution (P = 0.9967). According to the tests for initial data the model was demonstrated to be effective as there was no statistically significant difference between the theoretical and the actual values.
本文旨在通过数学模型对间日疟长、短潜伏期混合分布进行流行病学分析。运用Gram-Charlier级数、Marquardt非线性最小二乘法剖析法以及系统计算机程序，对湖南省常德市过去7年间不同潜伏期的间日疟混合样本进行剖析，并探讨气候因素和流行过程的影响，推断出该市间日疟存在两种潜伏期。长潜伏期病例和短潜伏期病例分别在春末和夏秋季节形成季节性过度分布。模型估计参数与实际分布具有最佳拟合优度（P = 0.9967）。根据初始数据检验，理论值与实际值之间无统计学显著差异，证明该模型有效。
