Dalla-Vorgia P, Sasco A J, Skalkidis Y, Katsouyanni K, Trichopoulos D
Department of Hygienee and Epidemiology, University of Athens Medical School, Greece.
Scand J Soc Med. 1990 Jun;18(2):81-9. doi: 10.1177/140349489001800201.
The purpose of this paper was to assess the effectiveness of anti-tobacco smoking legislation from 1948 onwards in reducing actual per capita tobacco consumption in the twelve countries of the European Economic Community (EEC). In order to undertake these assessments a score was assigned to every legislative measure, indicating the a priori likely impact of this measure on tobacco consumption. Two approaches were then utilized. In the first, it was found that the cumulative anti-tobacco legislative score correlates well in time with a reduction of tobacco consumption. In the second, cross-sectional data from the EEC countries and multiple regression modelling were used to estimate the elasticities of tobacco price, per capita income and cumulative anti-tobacco legislation score; it was found that legislation has an impact on tobacco consumption which, although considerably smaller than the corresponding impact of tobacco price levels, is nominally significant and potentially important. The evaluative approaches utilized in this paper are based on observational data of ecologic nature and can provide only weak evidence about the causal nature of the reported associations. Nevertheless, this limited evidence suggests that legislative measures may be effective both by affecting price levels and through other mechanisms, including health education and the formation of a more general anti-smoking ethos.
本文旨在评估1948年以来反吸烟立法在降低欧洲经济共同体（EEC）12国人均实际烟草消费量方面的有效性。为了进行这些评估，给每一项立法措施都设定了一个分数，以表明该措施对烟草消费的先验可能影响。然后采用了两种方法。第一种方法发现，累积的反烟草立法分数在时间上与烟草消费的减少密切相关。第二种方法利用了欧洲经济共同体国家的横截面数据和多元回归模型来估计烟草价格、人均收入和累积反烟草立法分数的弹性；结果发现，立法对烟草消费有影响，尽管这一影响远小于烟草价格水平的相应影响，但名义上是显著的，且可能很重要。本文所采用的评估方法基于生态性质的观察数据，只能为所报告关联的因果性质提供微弱的证据。然而，这一有限的证据表明，立法措施可能通过影响价格水平以及通过包括健康教育和形成更普遍的反吸烟风气在内的其他机制而有效。
