Department of International Trade, Overseas Chinese University, Taiwan.
Department of International Business, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Taiwan.
Public Health. 2018 Sep;162:48-57. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2018.05.017. Epub 2018 Jun 29.
To assess the impact of a simulated 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase on licit and illicit consumption and tax revenues in 36 European countries.
Employing panel data for licit and illicit cigarette consumption, fixed effects regression models were applied for different income clusters.
Total cigarette consumption dropped by about 3.1% as a result of the simulated tax-induced price increase. Annual illicit cigarette consumption increased by 1.52%, (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 2.83), while annual licit cigarette consumption decreased by 4.61% (95% confidence interval: -6.51, -2.72) in the observed 36 European countries. With total consumption decreasing by about 8%, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia were affected the most by the price hike. More specifically, licit consumption in these countries decreased by 18.43% (95% confidence interval: -19.91, -16.95) while illicit use increased by 10.99% (95% confidence interval: 6.01, 15.96). Moreover, the overall annual tobacco tax revenue increased by US$14.69 billion in the simulation.
Results of the study suggest that European policy makers continue to implement tobacco taxation policies to control smoking prevalence and national health care expenditures. At the same time, efforts to kerb contraband activities along EU Eastern borders should be intensified.
评估模拟的 10%消费税引起的香烟价格上涨对 36 个欧洲国家合法和非法消费及税收的影响。
利用合法和非法香烟消费的面板数据，对不同收入群体应用固定效应回归模型。
由于模拟的税收引起的价格上涨，总香烟消费量下降了约 3.1%。非法香烟消费每年增加 1.52%（95%置信区间：0.21，2.83），而在观察到的 36 个欧洲国家中，合法香烟消费每年下降 4.61%（95%置信区间：-6.51，-2.72）。由于总消费下降约 8%，捷克共和国、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、波兰和斯洛伐克受价格上涨影响最大。具体而言，这些国家的合法消费下降了 18.43%（95%置信区间：-19.91，-16.95），而非法使用增加了 10.99%（95%置信区间：6.01，15.96）。此外，模拟中烟草税收总收入增加了 146.9 亿美元。
研究结果表明，欧洲政策制定者应继续实施烟草税收政策，以控制吸烟率和国家医疗保健支出。同时，应加强遏制欧盟东部边境走私活动的努力。
