Models of macroparasitic infections in domestic ruminants: a conceptual review and critique.

A mathematical model is just a means of representing and manipulating something that would not otherwise be accessible. Decision theorists argue that a right decision is one that makes the best use of the available information and using mathematical models of infectious and parasitic disease can help make sure the decision-makers do just that. Seen in this light, models are simply aids to thought--and thus, by definition, good models are useful. This paper deals with the history of mathematical models of parasitic infections of domestic ruminants. It is argued that the early simple forecasting models were very successful, and, although the more complicated models that were constructed to improve the resolution of the forecasts were mostly failures, the experience gained generated a slew of useful, robust models that are still valuable decision-making tools.