Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

In recent decades, epidemiological models have been used more and more frequently as a tool for the design of programmes for the management of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effects of various control measures on the spread of the infection; analytical models are used to analyse data from outbreaks and experiments. A key parameter in these models is the reproduction ratio, which indicates to what degree the virus can be transmitted in the population. Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can be used subsequently in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance programmes. Examples of the use of these models are described in the current paper.