Nielsen S S, Weber M F, Kudahl A B, Marce C, Toft N
Department of Large Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Grenneglrdsvej 8, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Rev Sci Tech. 2011 Aug;30(2):615-25. doi: 10.20506/rst.30.2.2058.
Stochastic simulation models are widely accepted as a means of assessing the impact of changes in daily management and the control of different diseases, such as paratuberculosis, in dairy herds. This paper summarises and discusses the assumptions of four stochastic simulation models and their use in the design of certification, surveillance, and control strategies for paratuberculosis in cattle herds. A detailed comparison is made between the Dutch JohneSSim and the Danish PTB-Simherd, using the same context of a set of control strategies in a typical Dutch/Danish herd. The conclusion is that while the models are somewhat different in their underlying principles and do put slightly different values on the different strategies, their overall findings are similar. Therefore, simulation models may be useful in planning paratuberculosis strategies in dairy herds, although as with all models caution is warranted when interpreting and generalising the results.
随机模拟模型作为评估日常管理变化以及奶牛群中不同疾病（如副结核病）控制效果的一种手段，已被广泛接受。本文总结并讨论了四种随机模拟模型的假设及其在牛群副结核病认证、监测和控制策略设计中的应用。在典型的荷兰/丹麦牛群中，使用相同的一组控制策略背景，对荷兰的JohneSSim模型和丹麦的PTB - Simherd模型进行了详细比较。结论是，虽然这些模型的基本原理有所不同，并且对不同策略赋予的价值略有差异，但它们的总体结果相似。因此，模拟模型在规划奶牛群副结核病策略时可能有用，不过与所有模型一样，在解释和推广结果时需要谨慎。
