Harvard Medical School ACC 240, 15 Parkman Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
Health Phys. 2011 Nov;101(5):578-82. doi: 10.1097/HP.0b013e3182254e93.
Mammography screening is one of the major medical advances of the past several decades. Prior to 1990, the death rate from breast cancer had been unchanged in 50 y. Mammography screening began on a national scale in the middle of the 1980s and, as would be expected, the death rate from breast cancer began to drop in 1990. Since 1990, the death rate from breast cancer has decreased by 30%. Studies in the Netherlands and Sweden, using direct measurements in the general population, show that most of the decrease is due to mammography screening beginning at the age of 40 y, with a small component due to improved therapies (therapy is more effective when cancers are small and earlier stage). A major concern raised in the 1970s was that the radiation from mammography might cause more cancers than would be cured. Not only did this prove to be a huge overestimate, but it has become clear that it is radiation delivered to very young women (teenagers and women in their early twenties), before terminal differentiation has taken place, that presents the greatest risk. Once the breast has differentiated, the risk from radiation is markedly reduced. By the time women reach their late thirties and early forties, there is no measurable risk from mammographic doses, and even the extrapolated risk is far below even the smallest benefit from screening. Hundreds of millions of mammograms have been obtained since the 1980s. If mammography were causing cancers, the incidence of breast cancer would be increasing. In fact, it is decreasing. Women need to be provided with this information to be reassured that mammograms save lives and that the radiation risk is minimal.
乳腺 X 线筛查是过去几十年中的主要医学进展之一。在 1990 年之前,乳腺癌的死亡率已经 50 年来没有变化。乳腺 X 线筛查始于 20 世纪 80 年代中期,并按照预期,乳腺癌的死亡率从 1990 年开始下降。自 1990 年以来,乳腺癌的死亡率已下降了 30%。荷兰和瑞典的研究使用一般人群的直接测量结果表明,大部分减少归因于 40 岁开始的乳腺 X 线筛查,一小部分归因于改进的治疗方法(当癌症较小且处于早期阶段时,治疗效果更好)。在 20 世纪 70 年代提出的一个主要关注点是,乳腺 X 线摄影的辐射可能会导致更多的癌症,而不是治愈的癌症。事实证明,这不仅是一个巨大的高估,而且很明显,在终端分化发生之前,对非常年轻的女性(青少年和二十出头的女性)进行的辐射带来了最大的风险。一旦乳房分化,辐射的风险就会明显降低。当女性进入三十多岁和四十多岁时,从乳腺 X 线摄影剂量中没有可测量的风险,甚至外推的风险也远远低于筛查的最小益处。自 20 世纪 80 年代以来,已经进行了数亿次乳腺 X 线检查。如果乳腺 X 线摄影导致癌症,那么乳腺癌的发病率将会增加。实际上,它正在下降。需要向女性提供这些信息,以使其放心,乳腺 X 线摄影可以挽救生命,并且辐射风险很小。