United Nations Headquarters, New York, NY, USA.
Disasters. 2012 Apr;36(2):195-211. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01258.x. Epub 2011 Oct 13.
This paper proposes a simple indicator to measure the exposure to natural disasters for the poor and non-poor population, in order to assess the global and regional trend of natural hazard and poverty. Globally, poor people are two times more exposed to natural disasters than the non-poor in the twenty-first century. The time trend varies across regions, with poor people in East Asia and Pacific being most exposed to natural disasters, followed by those in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The change of exposure measure over time is decomposed into two factors: a pure exposure change, which could be fuelled by climate change; and a concentration component. The result shows that the total net increase of exposure between the 1970s and the 2000s is driven significantly by the increased concentration of the poor (26 per cent) in disaster-prone areas, whereas the contribution of that factor remains very small for the non-poor (six per cent).
本文提出了一个简单的指标，用以衡量贫困人口和非贫困人口遭受自然灾害的情况，从而评估全球和区域范围内自然灾害与贫困的趋势。在 21 世纪，贫困人口暴露于自然灾害的风险是其两倍。这种时间趋势在各区域有所不同，东亚和太平洋地区的贫困人口受自然灾害影响最大，其次是南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区。随着时间的推移，暴露度衡量指标的变化可分解为两个因素：纯粹的暴露度变化，这可能是气候变化所致；以及集中因素。结果表明，20 世纪 70 年代至 2000 年间，贫困人口在灾害多发地区的集中程度增加（26%），这显著推动了贫困人口暴露度的净增加，而非贫困人口的这一因素的贡献仍然很小（6%）。
