Sakurai T
Department of Biomedical Informatics, Kyoto University Hospital.
Rinsho Byori. 1990 May;38(5):604-5.
There are three features in decision making in medicine. Decisions must be made on uncertain diagnostic and therapeutic information, a selected course of action may have an unwanted outcome, and finally, actions can not be retried from the beginning. We often assume that, by ordering a test, we can obtain more information to assist better decision making. It should be pointed out, however, that the test itself may be harmful and/or costly, may cause delay of treatment, and may misguide the decision by giving a false result. The benefit/risk ratio of choosing a test depends on the prior probability of disease, sensitivity and specificity of the test, and the outcome (utilities) of the correct and incorrect diagnosis. By drawing decision trees and making a sensitivity analysis, decision analysis helps to make the balance explicit.
医学决策中有三个特点。决策必须基于不确定的诊断和治疗信息做出,所选的行动方案可能会产生不良后果,最后,行动不能从头再来。我们常常认为,通过安排一项检查,我们可以获得更多信息以帮助做出更好的决策。然而,应该指出的是,检查本身可能有害和/或成本高昂,可能导致治疗延误,并且可能因给出错误结果而误导决策。选择一项检查的获益/风险比取决于疾病的先验概率、检查的敏感性和特异性,以及正确和错误诊断的结果(效用)。通过绘制决策树并进行敏感性分析,决策分析有助于明确这种平衡。