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前景理论还是解释水平理论?风险决策中的敏感度递减与心理距离

Prospect theory or construal level theory? Diminishing sensitivity vs. psychological distance in risky decisions.

作者信息

Trautmann Stefan T, van de Kuilen Gijs

机构信息

Tiber & Department of Economics Tilburg University, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Acta Psychol (Amst). 2012 Jan;139(1):254-60. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2011.08.006. Epub 2011 Oct 19.

Abstract

Attitudes toward risks are central to organizational decisions. These attitudes are commonly modeled by prospect theory. Construal level theory has been proposed as an alternative theory of risky choice, accounting for psychological distance deriving from temporal, spatial and social aspects of risk that are typical of agency situations. Unnoticed in the literature, the two theories make contradicting predictions. The current study investigates which theory provides a better description of risky decisions in the presence of temporal, spatial, and social factors. We find that the psychophysical effects modeled by prospect theory dominate the psychological distance effects of construal level theory.

摘要

对风险的态度是组织决策的核心。这些态度通常由前景理论建模。解释水平理论已被提出作为风险选择的替代理论,解释了源自代理情境中典型的风险的时间、空间和社会方面的心理距离。文献中未被注意到的是,这两种理论做出了相互矛盾的预测。当前的研究调查了哪种理论能更好地描述在存在时间、空间和社会因素的情况下的风险决策。我们发现,前景理论所建模的心理物理效应主导了解释水平理论的心理距离效应。

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