Epidemiological Research Department, IFT Institut für Therapieforschung, München, Germany.
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2012 Oct;66(10):908-13. doi: 10.1136/jech-2011-200180. Epub 2011 Oct 20.
In order to better understand trends in cannabis use, this study estimates independent and non-confounded age, period and cohort effects on 12-month cannabis use prevalence and frequency.
Data from seven waves of the German Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) conducted between 1990 and 2009 were used. The total sample included 29,836 men and 34,877 women aged 18-65 years. Cross-classified random effects models were conducted to estimate fixed effects of age and random effects of periods and birth cohorts. Analyses were stratified by gender.
With regard to 12-month prevalence, substantial age variations were identified with a peak of cannabis use in young adulthood. The overall effects of periods and birth cohorts were not significant. With regard to frequency of use, there were no significant influences of either variable. The results were largely identical for men and women.
This study identified little variation in trend data of current cannabis use. When confounding influences of period and ageing are controlled, the widely reported increases in cannabis consumption in recent birth cohorts cannot be demonstrated.
为了更好地了解大麻使用趋势，本研究估计了独立且非混杂的年龄、时期和队列效应对 12 个月大麻使用流行率和频率的影响。
本研究使用了德国物质滥用流行病学调查（ESA）在 1990 年至 2009 年之间进行的七次调查的数据。总样本包括 29836 名男性和 34877 名年龄在 18-65 岁之间的女性。采用交叉分类随机效应模型来估计年龄的固定效应和时期及出生队列的随机效应。分析按性别分层。
关于 12 个月的流行率，大麻使用在年轻成人中达到高峰，存在显著的年龄差异。时期和出生队列的总体影响不显著。至于使用频率，两个变量都没有显著影响。这些结果在男性和女性中基本一致。
本研究发现当前大麻使用趋势数据变化不大。当控制了时期和老龄化的混杂影响时，无法证明最近出生队列中大麻消费增加的广泛报道。
