Environment Department, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2011 Dec;62(12):2642-8. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.09.032. Epub 2011 Oct 21.
We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years. In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.
我们分析了从 1987 年至 2011 年期间，欧洲政治家在多大程度上遵守了关于年度总可捕捞量（TAC）的科学建议，涵盖了共同渔业政策（CFP）的大部分时期。在所检查的 11 个种群中，68%的决策中 TAC 设定高于科学建议。政治调整后的 TAC 平均比科学建议水平高出 33%。没有证据表明 2002 年 CFP 改革改善了决策，正如当时声称的那样。我们对这种政治驱动的决策对种群可持续性的影响进行了建模。我们的研究结果表明，政治上对科学建议的调整极大地增加了种群在 40 年内崩溃的可能性。2012 年，欧洲渔业政策将进行十年一次的改革。十年前曾承诺进行激进改革，但这些改革未能提高可持续性。除非决策制定发生变化，使捕捞分配基于科学而不是政治，否则 2012 年的改革很可能同样无效。
