School of Sociology, College of Arts and Social Sciences, The Australian National University, ACT 0200, Canberra, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2011 Oct;8(10):4055-68. doi: 10.3390/ijerph8104055. Epub 2011 Oct 21.
This study extends the emerging body of research on farmer adaptation to climate change, by segmenting farmers on the basis of specific attributes (health, values, belief about climate change, sense of responsibility for climate change, desire to change, social, human and financial capitals and farmer demographics) and considering such attributes as critical social aspects of the contextualized capacity to adapt. The segmental analysis was based on a nationally representative sample of 3,993 farmers concerned with farmer adaptation of climate risks. The resulting data were subjected to two-step cluster analysis to identify homogenous groups of farmers based on factors related to climate change adaptation. A three-cluster solution was identified wherein farmers were distinguishable on the basis of belief in climate change, desire for financial assistance and advice, social connectedness, information seeking, and adverse farm conditions. The largest group (Cluster 1: 55%) was characterized by farmers who recognized being affected by drought and drying and who were actively engaged in adaptive practices, despite the fact that they had little income and poor farm resources. One third of these farmers reported that their health was a barrier to sustained activity in farming. Cluster 2 (26%) was characterized by farmers not readily affected by drying, who enjoyed good incomes, good health and better farming conditions. They expressed little desire to adapt. The smallest cluster (Cluster 3: 19%) was also characterized by farmers who recognized that they were affected by drying. However, despite a desire to adapt, they had very little means to do so. They reported the poorest natural resources and the poorest health, despite being younger. The findings suggest that it is the intent to adapt, starting from where people are at, which is a more important indicator of the capacity to work towards sustainable practices than assets tests alone.
本研究通过基于特定属性（健康、价值观、对气候变化的信念、对气候变化的责任感、改变的意愿、社会、人力和金融资本以及农民人口统计数据）对农民进行细分，并将这些属性视为适应能力的关键社会方面，扩展了关于农民适应气候变化的新兴研究领域。该细分分析基于对 3993 名关注气候风险农民适应的全国代表性样本。所得数据经过两步聚类分析，根据与气候变化适应相关的因素，确定基于因素的同质农民群体。确定了三聚类解决方案，其中农民可以根据对气候变化的信念、对财务援助和建议的渴望、社会联系、信息寻求和不利的农业条件来区分。最大的群体（第 1 组：55%）的特点是农民认识到受到干旱和干燥的影响，并且尽管收入微薄且农业资源匮乏，但仍积极从事适应实践。这些农民中有三分之一表示，他们的健康是持续从事农业活动的障碍。第 2 组（26%）的特点是农民不易受到干燥影响，收入良好，健康状况良好，农业条件较好。他们表示几乎没有适应的意愿。最小的组（第 3 组：19%）也以认识到自己受到干燥影响的农民为特征。然而，尽管他们有适应的愿望，但他们几乎没有办法适应。他们报告说，尽管他们更年轻，但他们的自然资源和健康状况最差。研究结果表明，从人们所处的位置出发，意图适应是朝着可持续实践努力的能力的更重要指标，而不仅仅是资产测试。
