Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Centre for Transport and Navigation, Delft, The Netherlands.
Inj Prev. 2012 Aug;18(4):240-5. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2011-040097. Epub 2011 Nov 21.
This paper examines the relationship between the amount of bicycle use and the number of single-bicycle crashes (ie, only one cyclist involved) in Dutch municipalities. Previous research has focused on crashes between bicycles and motor vehicles; however, most cyclists admitted to hospital are victims of single-bicycle crashes.
This correlational study used three data sets which included data relating to single-bicycle crashes and kilometres travelled by bicycle. Negative binomial regression was used to compare the amount of bicycling with the number of injuries incurred in single-bicycle crashes in Dutch municipalities.
The likelihood of single-bicycle crashes varied inversely with the level of bicycle use. The exponent for the change in the number of single-bicycle crashes in response to changes in bicycle volumes was <1 in all analyses (ie, the increase in the number of single-bicycle crashes in a given municipality is proportionally less than the increase in the number of bicycle kilometres travelled by its inhabitants). The value was reduced in analyses of single-bicycle crashes with more severe injuries.
Cyclists are less likely to be involved in a severe single-bicycle crash in municipalities with a high amount of cycling. Given the large numbers of patients admitted to hospital as a result of single-bicycle crashes, it is important to include the risks of these in road safety and health effect evaluations, and to take into account the non-linearity of the relationship between single-bicycle crashes and bicycle use if road safety measures are to affect the level of bicycle use.
本文考察了荷兰各城市自行车使用量与单车事故（即仅涉及一名自行车骑手）数量之间的关系。先前的研究主要集中在自行车与机动车之间的碰撞事故上；然而，大多数因单车事故而住院的自行车骑手都是单车事故的受害者。
本相关性研究使用了三个数据集，其中包括与单车事故和自行车行驶里程相关的数据。使用负二项回归比较荷兰各城市自行车使用量与单车事故受伤人数之间的关系。
单车事故的可能性与自行车使用量呈反比。在所有分析中，单车事故数量变化的指数均小于 1（即在给定城市中，单车事故数量的增加比例小于居民自行车行驶里程的增加比例）。在分析更严重受伤的单车事故时，该数值有所降低。
在自行车使用量较高的城市，自行车骑手发生严重单车事故的可能性较低。鉴于因单车事故而住院的患者人数众多，在道路安全和健康影响评估中必须考虑这些事故的风险，并考虑单车事故与自行车使用之间的非线性关系，如果道路安全措施要影响自行车使用水平的话。
