Dias Ricardo Augusto, Nogueira Filho Vladimir de Souza, Goulart Carla da Silva, Telles Isabel Cristine Oliveira, Marques Guilherme Henrique Figueiredo, Ferreira Fernando, Amaku Marcos, Ferreira Neto José Soares
Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2011 Oct;30(4):370-6.
To propose a qualitative risk assessment model for the study of livestock exposure to rabies virus from the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus (antigenic variant 3) in the Paraíba do Sul river valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil.
Based on scenario trees generated considering rabies exposure and its spread, we estimated the probability of rabies cases in large livestock and its association with the geographic location of livestock farms.
Assessment of the historical series of rabies focal points in the first semester of 2006, which was used to validate the risk assessment model, revealed that 81.8% of the focal points were adequately foreseen by the model and could have been prevented with strategic vaccination in high-risk areas.
The adoption of control measures specifically targeting high-risk areas might entail a substantial decrease in the number of rabies focal points, at a low cost and with optimal movement of field teams.
提出一种定性风险评估模型，用于研究巴西圣保罗州南帕拉伊巴河谷地区家畜接触来自吸血蝙蝠（Desmodus rotundus，抗原变体3）的狂犬病病毒的情况。
基于考虑狂犬病暴露及其传播生成的情景树，我们估计了大型家畜狂犬病病例的概率及其与家畜农场地理位置的关联。
对2006年上半年狂犬病疫点历史系列进行评估以验证风险评估模型，结果显示该模型充分预见了81.8%的疫点，并且通过在高风险地区进行战略疫苗接种本可预防这些疫点。
采取专门针对高风险地区的控制措施可能会大幅减少狂犬病疫点数量，成本低且实地工作队的行动最为优化。
