[Estimation of the number of individuals entitled to dependency benefits and of the associated cost of care in Spain for 2007-2045].

OBJECTIVE

To provide estimates of the number of dependent individuals per grade and level for the period 2007-2045 and the cost associated with the care of these individuals for the System for Promoting the Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons [Sistema para la Autonomía y Atención a la Dependencia (SAAD)].

METHODS

Based on the Disabilities, Independence and Dependency Situations Survey (2008) and the scale for the assessment of grades and levels of dependency, we applied a two-stage estimation procedure to project the number of dependent individuals. In the first stage, we calculated the probability of a person being dependent and entitled to benefits by using a logit model. In the second stage, using an ordered logit model, we calculated the probability of distinct grades and levels of dependency in dependent persons entitled to benefits. Subsequently, we calculated expenditure projections based on average cost per point scale by grade and level of dependency.

RESULTS

Our results suggest a higher incidence of situations of dependency in female beneficiaries than in male beneficiaries, with higher growth rates for almost all categories of grade and level between 2007 and 2045. We estimated that in 2045 there will be 1,592,798 beneficiaries of the SAAD (596,332 men and 996,466 women). Moreover, between 2007 and 2045 the cost of care for dependent people will be multiplied by 2.64 for male beneficiaries and by 2.89 for female beneficiaries, amounting to 41,926 million euros in 2045.

CONCLUSIONS

The care of dependent persons is a major challenge for Spanish society both because of the number of persons that will require care and because of the greater economic cost involved. These findings should prompt a debate on how to fund services and benefits and how to ensure the sustainability of the system.