Kurume University School of Medicine, 67 Asahi-machi, Kurume 830-0011, Japan.
Public Health. 2012 Feb;126(2):168-76. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2011.10.005. Epub 2011 Dec 16.
The validity of health impact assessment (HIA) predictions has not been accurately assessed to date. In recent years, legislative attempts to promote decentralization have been progressing in Japan, and Kurume was designated as a core city in April 2008. An HIA into the transition of Kurume to a core city was conducted before the event, but the recommendations were not accepted by city officials.
The aim of this study was to examine the validity of predictions made in the HIA on Kurume by conducting a monitoring review into the accuracy of the predictions.
Before Kurume was designated as a core city, the residents completed an online questionnaire and city officials were interviewed. The findings and recommendations were presented to the city administration. One year after the transition, a monitoring review was performed to clarify the accuracy of the HIA predictions by evaluating the correlation between the predictions and reality.
Many of the HIA predictions were found to conflict with reality in Kurume. Prediction validity was evaluated for two groups: residents of Kurume and city officials. For the residents, 17% (2/12 items) of the predictions were found to be compatible, 58% (7/12) were incompatible and 25% (3/12) were difficult to evaluate. For city officials, the analysis was divided into those whose department was directly involved in tasks transferred to them (transfer tasks) and those whose department was not. For the city officials in departments responsible for conducting core city transfer tasks, 33% (3/9 items) of the predictions were found to be compatible, 33% (3/9) were incompatible and 33% (3/9) were difficult to evaluate. However, for the city officials whose responsibilities were unrelated to core city transfer tasks, 11% (1/9) of predictions were found to be compatible, 78% (7/9) were incompatible and 11% (1/9) were difficult to evaluate.
Although it was possible to validate some of the HIA predictions, the results of this monitoring review found substantial discrepancies between the predictions and reality 1 year after the transition of Kurume to a core city. This suggests that the accuracy of HIA predictions may be called into question. However, it should be noted that the review was conducted very soon after the transition and the steering group was very small, which may explain why the HIA predictions were inaccurate. Further, long-term studies may be needed to assess the accuracy of HIA predictions in similar contexts.
迄今为止，尚未准确评估健康影响评估（HIA）预测的有效性。近年来，日本在促进权力下放方面的立法尝试一直在取得进展，久留米市于 2008 年 4 月被指定为核心城市。在事件发生之前，对久留米向核心城市的过渡进行了 HIA，但市官员没有接受建议。
本研究的目的是通过对久留米 HIA 预测的准确性进行监测审查，检验预测的有效性。
在久留米被指定为核心城市之前，居民完成了在线问卷调查，市官员接受了采访。调查结果和建议提交给了市政府。在过渡一年后，通过评估预测与现实之间的相关性，进行监测审查以明确 HIA 预测的准确性。
在久留米，许多 HIA 预测与现实情况相冲突。为两组评估预测有效性：久留米居民和市官员。对于居民，有 17%（12 项中的 2 项）的预测结果一致，58%（12 项中的 7 项）不一致，25%（12 项中的 3 项）难以评估。对于部门直接负责转移任务的市官员（转移任务）和部门不负责转移任务的市官员进行分析。对于负责进行核心城市转移任务的市官员，有 33%（9 项中的 3 项）的预测结果一致，33%（9 项中的 3 项）不一致，33%（9 项中的 3 项）难以评估。但是，对于与核心城市转移任务无关的市官员，有 11%（9 项中的 1 项）的预测结果一致，78%（9 项中的 7 项）不一致，11%（9 项中的 1 项）难以评估。
尽管可以验证某些 HIA 预测，但在久留米过渡到核心城市一年后进行的这次监测审查发现，预测与现实之间存在很大差异。这表明 HIA 预测的准确性可能受到质疑。但是，应当注意的是，审查是在过渡后不久进行的，指导小组规模很小，这可能解释了 HIA 预测为何不准确。此外，在类似情况下，可能需要进行长期研究来评估 HIA 预测的准确性。
