Yeager S G, Robson J I
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO USA.
2National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
Curr Clim Change Rep. 2017;3(2):112-127. doi: 10.1007/s40641-017-0064-z. Epub 2017 Apr 18.
Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems.
The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models.
Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.
近期关于大西洋气候预测的研究是对大量有关大西洋年代际变化和可预测性研究的一项令人兴奋的新贡献，长期以来这些研究一直强调大西洋在调节地表气候方面的独特作用。我们对理解大西洋变化机制、大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）的作用以及我们目前将这种理解应用于实际气候预测系统的能力的基础和前沿进行了综述。
在回顾性预测中，AMOC——或者更准确地说，包括翻转环流和涡旋环流的浮力强迫热盐环流（THC）——似乎是亚极地北大西洋年代际时间尺度预测技能的基础。预测更广泛气候变化（包括陆地气候变化）的技能则更为有限，但有迹象表明，随着模型的进一步发展，情况可能会有所改善。
初始化大西洋气候预测领域的初步成功证实了低频大西洋海洋动力学与气候的相关性，并表明进行有用的年代际气候预测是一个可实现的目标。
