Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2012 Oct;140(10):1862-72. doi: 10.1017/S095026881100286X. Epub 2012 Jan 11.
We present a mathematical transmission model of tuberculosis in the USA. The model is calibrated to recent trends of declining incidence in the US-born and foreign-born populations and is used in assessing relative impacts of treatment of latently infected individuals on elimination time, where elimination is defined as annual incidence <1 case/million. Provided current control efforts are maintained, elimination in the US-born population can be achieved before the end of this century. However, elimination in the foreign-born population is unlikely in this timeframe even with higher rates of targeted testing and treatment of residents of and immigrants to the USA with latent tuberculosis infection. Cutting transmission of disease as an interim step would shorten the time to elimination in the US-born population but foreign-born rates would remain above the elimination target.
我们提出了一个美国结核病传播的数学模型。该模型根据美国出生和外国出生人群发病率下降的最新趋势进行了校准，并用于评估对潜伏性感染者进行治疗对消除时间的相对影响，消除的定义是年发病率<1 例/百万。如果目前的控制工作得以维持，那么在美国出生的人群中可以在本世纪末之前实现消除。然而，即使对美国的潜伏性结核病感染者进行更高比例的有针对性的检测和治疗，在这个时间框架内也不太可能在外国出生的人群中实现消除。作为一个中间步骤，减少疾病传播将缩短美国出生人群消除的时间，但外国出生的发病率仍将高于消除目标。
