School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
Int J Public Health. 2012 Jun;57(3):467-75. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0331-7. Epub 2012 Jan 24.
Pedestrian and pedal cycle injuries are important causes of child morbidity and mortality. The combination of Bayesian methods and geographical distribution maps may assist public health practitioners to identify communities at high risk of injury.
Data were obtained on all hospitalizations of children from NSW (Australia), for pedestrian and pedal cycle injuries, from 2000-2001 to 2004-2005. Using Bayesian methods, posterior expected rate ratios (as an estimate of smoothed standardized hospitalization ratios for each injury mechanism) were mapped by local government area (LGA) across the state.
There were over 7,000 hospitalizations for pedestrian and pedal cycle injuries. High risk LGAs accounted for more than one third of hospitalized pedestrian and pedal cycle injuries in NSW.
LGAs at high risk for pedestrian injury tended to be urbanized metropolitan areas with a high population density, while high risk LGAs for pedal cycle injury tended to be either in urban regional areas, or on the margin of urbanized metropolitan areas. Geospatial analyses can assist policymakers and practitioners to identify high risk communities for which public health interventions can be prioritized.
行人与脚踏车事故是导致儿童发病率和死亡率的重要原因。贝叶斯方法与地理分布图的结合可以帮助公共卫生工作者识别高风险受伤社区。
我们获取了新南威尔士州（澳大利亚）2000-2001 年至 2004-2005 年期间所有因行人与脚踏车事故而住院的儿童数据。我们利用贝叶斯方法，按地方政府管辖区（LGA）绘制了全州各伤害机制的后验预期率比值（作为平滑标准化住院率比的估计值）地图。
行人与脚踏车事故导致了超过 7000 例住院治疗。新南威尔士州，高风险 LGA 占行人与脚踏车事故住院治疗的三分之一以上。
行人受伤高风险 LGA 往往是人口密度较高的城市化大都市区，而脚踏车事故高风险 LGA 则位于城市区域或城市化大都市区的边缘。地理空间分析可以帮助政策制定者和实践者识别高风险社区，为其优先实施公共卫生干预措施。
