Department of Veterans Administration Medical Center, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR 97201, USA.
Med Decis Making. 2012 Mar-Apr;32(2):227-31. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11434739. Epub 2012 Jan 27.
Bayesian inference in medical decision making is a concept that has a long history with 3 essential developments: 1) the recognition of the need for data (demonstrable scientific evidence), 2) the development of probability, and 3) the development of inverse probability. Beginning with the demonstrative evidence of the physician's sign, continuing through the development of probability theory based on considerations of games of chance, and ending with the work of Jakob Bernoulli, Laplace, and others, we will examine how Bayesian inference developed.
贝叶斯推断在医学决策中的应用有着悠久的历史，其发展主要包括三个方面：1）认识到数据（可证明的科学证据）的必要性，2）概率论的发展，以及 3）逆概率的发展。我们将从医生的体征这一具有说服力的证据开始，追溯其发展历程，一直延续到基于机会游戏理论的概率论发展，最终探讨雅各布·伯努利、拉普拉斯等人的工作，了解贝叶斯推断是如何发展起来的。
