The risk of nursing home use in later life.

Data from the 1982-1984 National Long-Term Care Survey were used in this paper to estimate the risk of nursing home use. The data revealed that 37% of a nationally representative sample of individuals dying between 1982 and 1984 used a nursing home sometime after turning 65. This proportion increased with longevity and was higher among females and whites and in the North Central and Western regions of the country. Because individuals now turning 65 have a longer life expectancy than the persons studied, they face an even higher remaining lifetime risk of nursing home use (43%). Assuming that past utilization patterns will continue, over half of the women and almost one-third of the men turning 65 in 1990 can be expected to use a nursing home sometime before they die.