Murtaugh C M, Kemper P, Spillman B C
Division of Long Term Care Studies, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research, Rockville, MD.
Med Care. 1990 Oct;28(10):952-62. doi: 10.1097/00005650-199010000-00009.
Data from the 1982-1984 National Long-Term Care Survey were used in this paper to estimate the risk of nursing home use. The data revealed that 37% of a nationally representative sample of individuals dying between 1982 and 1984 used a nursing home sometime after turning 65. This proportion increased with longevity and was higher among females and whites and in the North Central and Western regions of the country. Because individuals now turning 65 have a longer life expectancy than the persons studied, they face an even higher remaining lifetime risk of nursing home use (43%). Assuming that past utilization patterns will continue, over half of the women and almost one-third of the men turning 65 in 1990 can be expected to use a nursing home sometime before they die.
本文使用了1982 - 1984年全国长期护理调查的数据来估计使用养老院的风险。数据显示，在1982年至1984年间死亡的具有全国代表性的样本中，37%的人在65岁以后的某个时候使用过养老院。这一比例随着寿命的延长而增加，在女性、白人以及美国中北部和西部地区更高。由于现在年满65岁的人的预期寿命比所研究的人群更长，他们面临的余生使用养老院的风险更高（43%）。假设过去的使用模式将持续下去，预计1990年年满65岁的女性中超过一半以及男性中近三分之一的人在去世前的某个时候会使用养老院。
