最好的时代，最坏的时代：理解顺周期性死亡率。
The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Understanding Pro-cyclical Mortality.
作者信息
Stevens Ann H, Miller Douglas L, Page Marianne E, Filipski Mateusz
机构信息
University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave. Davis, CA 95616.
University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616.
出版信息
Am Econ J Econ Policy. 2015 Nov;7(4):279-311. doi: 10.1257/pol.20130057.
Abstract
It is well known that mortality rates are pro-cyclical. In this paper, we attempt to understand why. We find little evidence that cyclical changes in individuals' own employment-related behavior drives the relationship; own-group employment rates are not systematically related to own-group mortality. Further, most additional deaths that occur when the economy is strong are among the elderly, particularly elderly women and those residing in nursing homes. We also demonstrate that staffing in nursing homes moves counter-cyclically. These findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in the quality of health care may be a critical contributor to cyclical movements in mortality.
摘要
众所周知，死亡率具有顺周期性。在本文中，我们试图探究其原因。我们几乎没有发现证据表明个人自身与就业相关行为的周期性变化驱动了这种关系；本群体的就业率与本群体的死亡率并无系统性关联。此外，经济强劲时出现的大多数额外死亡发生在老年人中，尤其是老年女性和住在养老院的人。我们还证明，养老院的人员配备呈反周期性变动。这些发现表明，医疗保健质量的周期性波动可能是死亡率周期性变动的一个关键因素。
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