[1997年至2008年香港地区甲型流感季节性与人类气候因素之间关联的回顾性分析]

[A retrospective analysis on the association between seasonality of influenza A and climate factors in human from 1997 to 2008, in Hong Kong].

作者信息

Guo Pi, Li Ke

机构信息

Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 Oct;32(10):1005-8.

PMID:22333084

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between seasonal dynamics of influenza A and climate factors in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Data regarding monthly report on influenza A and climate during the period of 1997 - 2008 were collected. Generalized additive models were established to study the effects of climate factors on the seasonality of influenza A in human while confounders controlled and nonlinear effect determined.

RESULTS

showed that the association between climate factors and the seasonality of influenza A was complicated. The nonlinear effects of climate factors on the epidemics of influenza A were significant, using χ(2) test (P < 0.05). The effect of the factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and absolute humidity on the seasonality of influenza A were similar, maximal at low scale, minimal at mid-rang scale and moderate at high one. The minamal effect intervals of the above factors were (17.95 - 24.10)°C, (71.5 - 78.5)%, (18.3 - 24.0) km/h and (4.37 - 4.80) mb respectively.

CONCLUSION

Data from this study suggested that the effect of climate factors on the seasonal dynamics of influenza A in human was complicated.

摘要

目的

研究香港甲型流感的季节性动态与气候因素之间的关联。

方法

收集了1997年至2008年期间甲型流感月度报告及气候数据。建立广义相加模型，在控制混杂因素并确定非线性效应的同时，研究气候因素对人类甲型流感季节性的影响。

结果

表明气候因素与甲型流感季节性之间的关联较为复杂。采用χ(2)检验，气候因素对甲型流感流行的非线性效应显著（P < 0.05）。平均温度、相对湿度、风速和绝对湿度等因素对甲型流感季节性的影响相似，在低水平时最大，在中等水平时最小，在高水平时适中。上述因素的最小效应区间分别为(17.95 - 24.10)°C、(71.5 - 78.5)%、(18.3 - 24.0) km/h和(4.37 - 4.80) mb。