Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2018 Sep;62(9):1615-1624. doi: 10.1007/s00484-018-1561-z. Epub 2018 May 26.
Accumulating evidence demonstrates the significant influence of weather factors, especially temperature and humidity, on influenza seasonality. However, it is still unclear whether temperature variation within the same day, that is diurnal temperature range (DTR), is related to influenza seasonality. In addition, the different effects of weather factors on influenza seasonality across age groups have not been well documented in previous studies. Our study aims to explore the effects of DTR and humidity on influenza seasonality, and the differences in the association between weather factors and influenza seasonality among different age groups in Hong Kong, China. Generalized additive models were conducted to flexibly assess the impact of DTR, absolute humidity (vapor pressure, VP), and relative humidity on influenza seasonality in Hong Kong, China, from January 2012 to December 2016. Stratified analyses were performed to determine if the effects of weather factors differ across age groups (< 5, 5-9, 10-64, and > 64 years). The results suggested that DTR, absolute humidity, and relative humidity were significantly related to influenza seasonality in dry period (when VP is less than 20 mb), while no significant association was found in humid period (when VP is greater than 20 mb). The percentage changes of hospitalization rates due to influenza associated with per unit increase of weather factors in the very young children (age 0-4) and the elderly (age 65+) were higher than that in the adults (age 10-64). Diurnal temperature range is significantly associated with influenza seasonality in dry period, and the effects of weather factors differ across age groups in Hong Kong, China.
越来越多的证据表明,天气因素,尤其是温度和湿度,对流感的季节性有重要影响。然而,目前尚不清楚同一日内的温度变化,即昼夜温差(DTR),是否与流感的季节性有关。此外,在以前的研究中,天气因素对不同年龄组流感季节性的不同影响尚未得到很好的记录。我们的研究旨在探讨 DTR 和湿度对流感季节性的影响,以及天气因素与中国香港不同年龄组流感季节性之间关联的差异。我们使用广义加性模型灵活评估了昼夜温差、绝对湿度(蒸汽压,VP)和相对湿度对 2012 年 1 月至 2016 年 12 月期间中国香港流感季节性的影响。分层分析确定了天气因素对不同年龄组(<5 岁、5-9 岁、10-64 岁和>64 岁)的流感季节性的影响是否存在差异。结果表明,在干燥期(VP 小于 20mb 时),昼夜温差、绝对湿度和相对湿度与流感季节性显著相关,而在潮湿期(VP 大于 20mb 时)则没有显著相关性。与天气因素每单位增加相关的因流感住院率的百分比变化,在非常年幼的儿童(0-4 岁)和老年人(65 岁以上)中比在成年人(10-64 岁)中更高。昼夜温差与干燥期的流感季节性显著相关,且在中国香港,天气因素对不同年龄组流感季节性的影响存在差异。